FYI

The All-American Fuel – Propane Will Increasingly Be Sourced Domestically (Our Take on the U.S. EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 – Part 4)

According to U.S. EIA forecasts, “domestic production of petroleum and other liquids will grow by nearly 3.1 million barrels per day between 2010 and 2035” as the figure below shows.  Fortunately for propane users, natural gas liquids (which include propane as well as ethane and butane) will lead and account for much of this overall growth.

(Source: U.S. EIA AEO2012) Figure 111. U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids by source, 2010-2035 (million barrels per day)

U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids by source, 2010-2035 (million barrels per day (U.S. EIA AEO2012)

Looking at total domestic production, initially it grows rapidly, “from 9.7 to 12.1 million barrels per day between 2010 and 2020”, due to sharp increases from “tight oil formations, including shale plays.”  After 2020, the rate of growth slows, eventually reaching “12.7 million barrels per day in 2035, as tight oil production levels off.”

Natural gas liquids contribute about 1/3 of that total 3 million barrel increase, going from 2.1 million barrels per day in 2010 to 3.0 from 2025 through 2035.  This growth in production will come is mainly due to increases in shale gas drilling, which contain “significant volumes of natural gas liquids”.  This growth represents a whopping 45% increase in domestic supply of propane over the next 15 years.  Propane users can take pride in knowing that their fuel is increasingly a domestic fuel and that you are contributing to American energy independence when choosing it.

Domestic Natural Gas Liquids Supply (data from U.S. EIA AEO2012; Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition)

Domestic Natural Gas Liquids Supply (data from U.S. EIA AEO2012; Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition)

 

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